Rafael Jodar Set to Cover -4.5 Spread Against Carabelli on Clay
Rafael Jodar vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli · Jodar -4.5 (-115)
10:00 AM
Our Analysis
Rafael Jodar enters today's matchup with a decisive edge, underscored by a 24-7 season record and an unbeaten 6-0 streak on clay in 2026. His capacity to dominate has been showcased by a recent 6-1 6-2 dismantling of Jaume Munar Clar, and his 81% first serve win rate demonstrates consistent control of service games, which is crucial on the clay surface.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli does offer some resistance, carrying an 11-4 clay record this season, but his overall 13-9 mark falls well short of Jodar's output. In their previous head-to-head meeting, also on clay, Carabelli struggled to find answers as Jodar dispatched him in straight sets. That result reinforces the matchup dynamic, especially with the venue now on PISTA RAFA NADAL, giving Jodar a distinct home-court edge.
The data leads us directly to the Jodar -4.5 spread. With superior form, surface-specific success, and psychological leverage from their last meeting, the model assigns high value and 86% confidence to this angle. Jodar's relentless baseline play and elite serve metrics should once again prove overwhelming, making the -4.5 line a sharp option for bettors seeking reliability and return.
Result
Rafael Jodar defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli with a final score of 6-3, 6-3. The bet on Jodar -4.5 (-115) won, as the computed margin of 6 games across all sets exceeded the required 4.5 games.